Mosab Hassan Yousef, a former militant turned political commentator, has issued a stark warning against any foreign military intervention in Iran, arguing that outside force would undermine the country’s protest movement and trigger widespread regional and global instability.
In a lengthy statement posted on his verified social media account, Yousef outlined what he described as an “Intervention Backfire Theory,” asserting that bombing Iran during an internal uprising would not hasten freedom but instead crush it.
According to him, armed attacks would divert attention away from popular dissent and allow Iran’s leadership to recast internal opposition as a national struggle against external enemies.
Yousef argued that under military pressure, Iranian authorities would not collapse but adapt, shifting from domestic repression to outward confrontation. He warned that protests would disappear beneath the weight of war, while the government would seek to expand conflict beyond its borders rather than engage in a conventional fight it could not win.
He predicted a rapid regional escalation, including potential mining of the Strait of Hormuz, activation of Iran-aligned armed groups, attacks on Israel, strikes on oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and possible assaults on US military installations in Qatar.
Such a scenario, he said, would resemble prolonged conflicts like Yemen but on a far larger and more destructive scale. Beyond the Middle East, Yousef forecast severe global consequences. He said oil prices would surge, financial markets would destabilize, and supply shortages could lead to unrest in major economies.
Within the United States, he warned of domestic political fallout, including mass protests, economic strain, and deep divisions between advocates of military action and those favoring isolation.
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