Iran made a serious strategic error by firing a drone at the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and should immediately adopt a more conciliatory approach to upcoming negotiations, Republicans Overseas Chairman Greg Swenson has advised.
In his assessment to Al Arabiya, Swenson characterized Iran’s recent provocations as fundamentally misguided given the regime’s vulnerable position and the massive American military presence in the region. “If I were the regime, I would start to play nice. I think it was big mistake sending that drone toward the Lincoln yesterday,” he stated bluntly.
The Republicans Overseas chairman explained that Iran’s decision to launch a drone at an American aircraft carrier represented dangerous brinkmanship that could easily backfire. While the United States destroyed the threat using an F-35 fighter from the Abraham Lincoln, Swenson noted the restraint shown in the American response. “They eliminated the drone, but you know, there was no retaliation. They just eliminated the threat using an F-35 off of the Abraham Lincoln,” he said.
This measured American response, however, should not be interpreted as weakness or unwillingness to escalate if provoked further. “But I do think that that was reckless by the regime, but I think the US deliberately chose not to escalate with the talks being on Friday,” Swenson explained, emphasizing that restraint was calculated specifically to preserve diplomatic possibilities ahead of scheduled negotiations.
The chairman warned that continued Iranian provocations would exhaust American patience and trigger severe consequences. “Anything more than that and I think it will be, you know, a massive threat to the regime,” he cautioned, suggesting that the drone incident represented a threshold that Iran should not cross again.
Swenson’s advice for Iran to “play nice” stems from his assessment of the regime’s fundamentally weak position. Iran has “lost all their proxies and allies” and suffered devastating damage to its nuclear program from last summer’s American airstrikes. “They were completely defenseless when the US went in last summer and took out the nuclear weapon facilities,” he recalled.
The military asymmetry between the United States and Iran makes confrontational gestures particularly ill-advised from Tehran’s perspective. Swenson noted the overwhelming American military presence near Iranian waters: “We’ve got a carrier, you know, off the coast of Oman right now,” positioned alongside the capability to deploy B2 strategic bombers on short notice.
Beyond the immediate military threat, Swenson outlined the broader context that should counsel Iranian caution. The Trump administration has demonstrated both willingness to use force and preference for diplomacy, offering Iran multiple opportunities to avoid military confrontation. “He wants to give them the offramp. He tried that last summer before the US bombed and sent the B2s in,” Swenson noted.
However, these diplomatic offramps come with conditions. Iran cannot expect to limit negotiations solely to nuclear issues while ignoring American concerns about guided missile systems, proxy terrorist funding, and violent suppression of domestic protesters. “The implication that this will just be about the nuclear weapon negotiations I think is a big mistake. And I don’t think the US will tolerate that,” Swenson warned.
The chairman emphasized that President Trump, while preferring peaceful resolution, will not hesitate to employ military force if Iran refuses substantive engagement. “It’s a shame, but if they keep at this and if they refuse to talk about the things that need to be discussed, yeah, the president will be pushed to use military force. He’s not afraid to do that,” Swenson stated.
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