A senior Iran analyst has warned that Israel’s strategy of targeting and assassinating top Iranian officials could backfire by empowering more radical and hardline figures within Iran’s leadership structure, ultimately making the situation more dangerous rather than bringing it under control.
Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group made the remarks while speaking to BBC News on March 17, 2026, following reports of targeted assassinations involving high-profile Iranian figures including Ali Larijani, a prominent member of Iran’s political and security establishment.
According to Vaez, many of the experienced officials being targeted have historically acted as moderating forces within Iran’s complex political system. He warned that removing them, particularly during a period of intense military conflict with Israel, creates a leadership vacuum that is most likely to be filled by more aggressive commanders from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps rather than by pragmatic or diplomatic voices.
Vaez argued that while such assassinations may deliver short-term tactical advantages, they carry serious long-term risks. “The more Israel removes Iran’s leaders, the more they are replaced by more radical ones,” he cautioned, suggesting that the strategy could intensify rather than contain the conflict.
He further explained that Iran’s governance structure is designed to be multilayered, meaning that the system ensures continuity even after significant leadership losses. However, Vaez noted that the successors emerging from military or ideological ranks are likely to adopt far more rigid and confrontational policies, both in domestic governance and in regional affairs, making future diplomacy even more difficult.
Vaez’s assessment reflects a growing concern among international analysts that strategies focused on destabilizing Iran’s leadership could produce the opposite of the intended result. Rather than weakening Iran’s resolve, the elimination of pragmatic voices may entrench hardline positions and prolong instability across an already fragile region….See More
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