Former Secretary-General of the Arewa Consultative Forum, Anthony Sani, has offered a blunt explanation for why he believes a majority of northern voters will support President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the next election. According to Sani, the calculation is straightforward. Tinubu is the only southern candidate whose tenure would guarantee that power returns to the North by 2031, because he cannot constitutionally govern beyond that point. Any other southerner who wins in 2027 could potentially hold on to power until 2035, pushing the North further away from the presidency.
Sani made the remarks in comments reported by The Nigerian Tribune, addressing the intersection of zoning politics, identity, and strategic voting that continues to define how Nigerian elections are contested and won. He acknowledged that grievances exist within northern political and business circles regarding Tinubu’s presidency, particularly around key appointments and the impact of economic reforms. But he argued that these frustrations are unlikely to override the larger strategic interest of ensuring that the informal power rotation arrangement, which remains deeply embedded in Nigeria’s political culture, delivers the presidency back to the North at the earliest possible opportunity.
The logic Sani presented is rooted in simple arithmetic. If Tinubu wins a second term in 2027, his presidency ends in 2031. At that point, zoning conventions would support a northern candidate stepping in. But if a different southerner wins in 2027, that individual could seek and win a second term in 2031, extending southern control of the presidency to 2035. For northern political strategists operating within the framework of identity politics, the difference between those two outcomes is significant enough to shape voting decisions regardless of any dissatisfaction with Tinubu’s current performance.
“As long as the politics of identity called zoning is still zeitgeist in the polity and the South wants to finish its eight-year tenure and the North wants the president in 2031, President Bola Tinubu is about the only southerner who cannot govern beyond 2031. Any other southerner can govern beyond 2031. That explains why a majority of northerners will prefer to vote for President Bola Tinubu,” Sani said.
The statement pulls back the curtain on a dimension of Nigerian politics that operates beneath the surface of policy debates and campaign promises. For all the talk of merit, reform, and national cohesion, the reality is that a significant portion of the electorate still votes based on calculations about regional power and which part of the country controls the presidency. Zoning has never been formally enshrined in law, yet it functions as one of the most powerful unwritten rules in the country’s political system. Sani’s comments confirm that for many in the North, the question is not whether Tinubu is the best candidate but whether he is the most useful one.
This kind of strategic thinking is not unique to the North. Southern politicians have applied similar logic in previous cycles, and the pattern repeats itself because Nigeria’s political structure incentivises it. When access to federal resources, appointments, and influence is tied to which region holds the preside.ncy, every election becomes a negotiation over turns rather than a contest over ideas. Sani’s analysis does not challenge that system. It simply describes how it works and where Tinubu fits within it….See More
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