Professor Udenta O. Udenta, a founding National Secretary of the defunct Alliance for Democracy (AD), has presented an analysis of Nigeria’s electoral mathematics, arguing that northern candidates face significant disadvantages in the 2027 presidential race due to zoning conventions and regional voting patterns.
Speaking on Arise TV, Professor Udenta outlined why he believes President Bola Tinubu holds a strong position against potential northern challengers.
“I can bet you no northerner can beat this sitting president, whoever, by whichever name you describe it, and no northerner can even beat a strong candidate from the South. You know the reason? Zoning restrains their pet out of power,” he stated.
The political scholar explained the electoral calculus that favors the incumbent president in a contest against a northern opponent, provided strong southern alternatives are absent.
“If you have the president (Tinubu) alone with a northerner and there’s no Peter Obi and there is no Jonathan in the race, he’s won because no northerner will take 10% of the vote in the South. That means 17 states are gone already,” Udenta calculated.
However, he contrasted this with the flexibility available to southern candidates in northern states, particularly in more diverse regions.
“But a southerner can do well in FCT. He can do well in Nasarawa, can do well in Plateau, in Benue, in Taraba, in Kaduna, in some of those states there,” the professor noted.
Udenta attributed this advantage to the demographic composition of certain northern states.
“Which you think are a lot more diverse, plural, and inclusive than say states of singularities,” he concluded.
The analysis provides insight into how political strategists view the interplay between Nigeria’s informal zoning arrangement and actual voting patterns across the country’s six geopolitical zones ahead of the 2027 general elections. See, More, Here>>>>
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