Former US National Intelligence Council Chairman Greg Treverton has suggested that both the United States and Israel would seriously consider targeting Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei if such an operation could be executed discreetly without causing extensive collateral damage.
In an interview with Al Arabiya, Treverton addressed the question of whether highly precise strikes could eliminate Iran’s leadership without civilian casualties. “Certainly I think probably both the United States and Israel would be prepared to do that,” he stated, specifically referencing the possibility of taking out “the Ayatollah Khamenei, the supreme leader in a in a discreet and not huge damage way.”
The former intelligence official’s comments came in response to questions about whether Israeli intelligence capabilities, which have proven remarkably effective in recent operations, could enable such precision targeting. Treverton acknowledged that “certainly the Israelis have shown remarkable clandestine abilities in recent years,” though he cautioned that “whether we have the capacity just not clear.”
He pointed to Israel’s demonstrated capabilities with unconventional weapons as evidence of their technical sophistication. “Certainly Israel has shown amazing capacities with cell phones with pagers with all kinds of devices that they turned into lethal weapons,” Treverton noted, referencing recent operations that stunned intelligence communities worldwide.
However, Treverton emphasized significant uncertainty about whether such capabilities could be applied to eliminating Iran’s supreme leader. “I think the answer is we we don’t know, but my guess is that if we had that capacity, either the United States or or Israel, more likely Israel, that would be an option that I think would tempt Mr. Trump,” he said.
The former Obama administration official drew parallels to President Trump’s previous willingness to authorize high-profile targeted killings. “After all, he did take out a major figure a couple of years ago,” Treverton observed, adding, “and so I think he would do it again if he had the chance.” This referred to the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, which demonstrated Trump’s willingness to authorize strikes against top Iranian leadership.
Treverton’s assessment reflects the complex calculations facing American and Israeli planners regarding Iran. While he has consistently argued that “there really aren’t any attractive military options” for broad military campaigns against Iran, targeted operations against specific leadership figures present a different calculus entirely.
The former intelligence chairman’s broader analysis emphasized the limitations of conventional military force against Iran. He noted that attempts to degrade Iran’s military or nuclear infrastructure would yield limited benefits, while strikes on security forces would inevitably result in “killing lots of innocent Iranians.” Furthermore, he warned that “almost any damage would probably strengthen the regime rather than weaken it as nations typically rally behind the flag when they’re attacked.
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