Killing the Ayatollah Might Actually Make the IRGC Stronger and Give This Regime New Legitimacy”Hale

A targeted strike that eliminated Iran’s Supreme Leader could backfire dramatically, potentially strengthening the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and granting the current regime a renewed sense of legitimacy, former US. Special Envoy and Ambassador David Hale warned during an interview on Al Arabiya. Hale cautioned that any “decapitation” operation aimed at the Ayatollah might simply create a power vacuum that the IRGC — already the most powerful and cohesive institution in Iran — would swiftly fill, allowing it to present itself as the defender of the revolution.

The ambassador explained that Iran lacks the kind of unified, credible opposition that existed in other cases of regime pressure, such as Venezuela. He pointed out that the civilian cabinet holds little real power, the population has no strong collective memory of liberal democracy, and the security services remain tightly aligned with the regime’s core. In such circumstances, removing the top figurehead could inadvertently consolidate hardline control rather than fracture it.

General Joseph Votel offered a related perspective, noting that the Iranian regime has already lost much of its moral standing in the region due to its support for proxies, ballistic missile proliferation, and domestic repression. Yet he acknowledged that Tehran would still attempt to portray any external attack — especially a high-profile one — as proof that it is bravely defending Shia interests and resisting Western domination, potentially rallying at least some domestic support.

William Lawrence reinforced the skepticism, arguing that short, intense bombing campaigns rarely produce genuine regime change and are even less likely to do so when the target state possesses a well-entrenched, well-armed security apparatus prepared for exactly such scenarios. All three analysts agreed that the absence of a viable, organized alternative force inside Iran makes any hope of quick, clean leadership change through military action highly unrealistic.

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